Say it with me now: You don’t need to reach for a quarterback in your fantasy draft.
Know it, internalize it. Tattoo it on your arm if you must, but there’s really no reason to overthink this. Aside from two or three QBs (who we’ll cover), the separation when it comes to fantasy production is slim at this position.
The difference between the eighth-best quarterback last year and the 16th-best was less than 50 points — and the eighth-best fantasy QB was Patrick Mahomes while the 16th-best was Derek Carr.
Now consider most fantasy leagues top out around 10-12 teams. There will be plenty of passers available if you refuse to panic during the draft.
What you should be looking for is a reliably healthy QB with a consistent floor. Don’t draft a quarterback expecting 40 points every week. Get the guy who you know will deliver you at least 20.
These are the guys you can trust.
The Elites
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
As long as the Tush Push remains a viable and effective strategy for the Philadelphia Eagles, the floor for Hurts is going to remain much higher than his peers. Quarterbacks aren’t supposed to vulture from their lead tailbacks at the goal line, but with Hurts we’ve come to expect it. The biggest issue last season for fantasy managers was that he kept giving those points right back with a career-high 15 interceptions and six fumbles. Let’s see if he can’t find some positive regression there in 2024.
Safe And Steady
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Whatever anxiety might exist around the Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors really shouldn’t matter when it comes to who is throwing the ball in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The Niners have far too many weapons and big-play threats across the roster. Purdy still doesn’t need to turn into Tom Brady to get you fantasy success from a QB. He just needs to stay upright and continue completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. His teammates will do the rest.
Breakout Candidates
11. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
13. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
14. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
15. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
If you want to argue Love’s breakout already happened last season, I won’t fault you. Aside from the inevitable 50-point outings he’ll have against the Bears, I’m still just not sold yet. Opening the season against the Eagles in Brazil is tough, but nothing compared a four-week stretch against the Niners, Dolphins, Lions and at Seattle beginning Week 12. That’s asking for a lot of faith from fantasy managers heading into the playoffs.
Draft-And-Stash
16. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
18. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
19. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
20. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
If you want to go ahead and trust a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles as your starting QB, by all means live your best life. I’m still in wait and see mode. If Rodgers is even 70 percent of what he was, the Jets have enough weapons on offense (Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Breece Hall) to make it worth the gamble, but the odds are not in your favor.
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